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2005: Volume
12, Number 1
Issue Editors: Vivien T. Supangco and Lisa Grace S. Bersales
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A Note on the Asymmetric Effect of Shocks on Market Return
Volatility: The Philippine Case
Joel C. Yu
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This paper extends
the research on stock return volatility in the Philippines. It
presents evidence on the asymmetric effects of positive and negative
shocks on the volatility of market returns in the Philippines. The
empirical findings of the study provide additional support to the
so-called leverage effect at the aggregate level. A drop in security
returns lowers market value of equity and increases the leverage of
firms. The change in financial leverage raises the risk and is
reflected in increased volatility.
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The Business Cycles in the Philippines: A Characterization
Sandra M. Leitner
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This paper provides
an overall characterization of the Philippine business cycles covering
the period 1981 to 2003 in terms of volatility, co-movement and
persistence. The period under investigation brought about three
cycles: 1983-1989, 1989-1997 and 1997-2000 with initially very erratic
but over time smoother fluctuations.
In resemblance with
industrialized economies, investment turns out to be the most volatile
and consumption the least volatile national expenditure component,
potentially pointing at Keynes’ assertion of “animal spirits” of
investors as the source for the former phenomenon. Further, with the
exception of prices, inflation and the terms of trade, all variables
have strong and positive correlations with GDP. The strong negative
price-output correlation and the weak positive inflation-output
correlation identify supply shocks as the triggering factor for
observed business cycles, pointing at either technological change or
drastic changes in the weather as possible spurring factors. Moreover,
the investigation clearly reveals procyclical fiscal and monetary
policy interventions, contradicting theoretical prescriptions of
countercyclical stabilization policies to swiftly overcome economic
recessions. Finally, all key macroeconomic variables show fairly low
persistence, substantiating the Philippines’ popularity for its
boom-bust cycles.
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TQM Adoption and Firm Performance in the Philippines
Ma. Gloria V. Talavera
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This study looked
into the extent of adoption of Total Quality Management (TQM) in the
Philippines. Using the Quality Management Input-Output system as the
framework of analysis, the study also examined the relationship of TQM
adoption on quality, business, and organizational performance of
Philippine manufacturing companies. Sixty-four (64) manufacturing
companies comprised the sample. Results show that TQM adoption works
in a third world environment like the Philippines. TQM adoption was
found to be highly associated with performance. Significant
improvements in organizational performance were observed indicating
the critical role of TQM in influencing human behavior. This study
contributes to the body of knowledge on TQM, especially on how it can
be a source of competitive advantage.
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Determinants of Toothpaste Brand Choice in Urban Philippines
Ben Paul B. Gutierrez
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This paper investigates toothpaste brand choice behavior of consumers
in urban Philippines. It proceeds from an earlier paper which utilized
discriminant analysis and discusses another approach to the problem
using logistic regression. Consumers’ evaluation of toothpaste brands
and their preferred brands were used to estimate logit models. With
the exception of Colgate brand, the goodness of fit of the estimated
models is generally high as shown by the prediction rates and Akaike
Information Criterion (AIC) numbers. Finally, the comparable
prediction rates, AICs, and Schwartz Criterion (SC) numbers have also
shown that the last brand bought is a significant predictor of brand
choice. This variable can also replace the brand most frequently
purchased as a dependent variable of the brand choice models.
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An Exploratory Study of Organizational Culture in Philippine Firms
Aliza D. Racelis
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Organizational
culture studies have proliferated in the management literature in
recent years. This is largely because the study of the culture
concept prompts researchers to question commonly held assumptions
about organizations and their value to society. This study seeks to
describe and characterize, at an exploratory level, the culture in
Philippine organizations.
Results of a
questionnaire survey of 136 Philippine managers regarding their firms’
organizational culture show that specific industries may share common
cultural characteristics along the organic-mechanistic and
integration-differentiation continuums, and that some of those
commonalities might be explained by similarities in their competitive
environment, customer requirements, and societal expectations. These
results, however, have yet to be verified by similar explorations into
other demographic variables such as company size.
This study can be
extended by exploring the relationships between the resulting cultural
variables and such organizational characteristics as: firm size,
financial performance, stock price performance, ethical behavior, work
satisfaction, corporate success factors, firms’ market-orientedness,
success in mergers and acquisitions, various other performance
variables, etc.
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Social Security System: Quo Vadis? (Where Are You Heading?)
Lina J. Valcarcel
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This paper aims to
look at the financial performance of the Social Security System (SSS),
the government’s social welfare program for employees in the private
sector.
SSS faces the risk
of a fund deficit in the near future due to poor operating results.
The latest actuarial study done in 1999 indicated the life of the SSS
to last until the year 2015 and reserves expected to decline starting
2008 even without benefit enhancement.
This study reviews
the financial performance of the Fund for the seven year period from
1998 to 2004 to see signs of this. Performance was examined along
the lines of membership, benefits granted, compliance with
regulations, and financial performance.
The study showed
that SSS faces the risk of fund deficit in the near future due to poor
financial performance, especially with benefits consistently exceeding
contributions. SSS has been maintaining an actuarial reserve below
what is required and this poses a risk on its ability to pay future
benefit claims. However, the deficit has been narrowing since 2002.
While the financial viability of the SSS is questionable, the
situation is not hopeless. With a good management and a resolute
resolve to collect members’ contributions, pursue sound investment
decisions, and institute operational reforms, the Fund can survive.
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Estimates of Direct Cost of Undergraduate Instruction at the
University of the Philippines
Helena Agnes S. Valderrama
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The study presents a
methodology for calculating the direct cost of undergraduate
instruction, and applies this methodology in estimating the cost of
undergraduate instruction at the University of the Philippines.
Unlike previous studies made on the topic, this study explicitly
considers the cost of facilities (i.e., existing library holdings,
computer, teaching and research laboratories) in the estimation and
finds that this cost comprises a material component approximately 25%
of total direct cost of undergraduate instruction at the University of
the Philippines.
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